Agricultural News March 31, 2011

The USDA acreage intention report that everyone has been anxiously awaiting came out today: USDA’s Prospective Plantings report indicated corn planted acreage would be up 5% from last year, soybean acreage would be down 1%, and wheat acreage would be up 8%. The Quarterly Grain Stocks Report indicated corn stocks are down 15% from last year, soybean stocks are down 2%, and wheat stocks are up 5%

Inflation Adjusted Farmland Values Chart

This was Bloomberg's chart-of-the-day last week, to coincide with the story of Robert Shiller predicting a farmland price bubble. Note that the graph uses Chicago Federal Reserve bank data which includes the states of Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin. The chart shows that in inflation-adjusted prices, we have yet to reach valuations of the 70's bubble.

Photo: Steam Cleaning Hay Baler 1959

Steam Cleaning Farm Machinery
Images Plowline of Rural New York. Photographic Negative. In the image, Edward Garretson steam cleans a hay baler at Hemlock Valley Farm in Stillwater, Sussex County, New Jersey prior to leaving it in his father's care for several months to go to Alaska in 1959. The tractor is a 1939 DC Case. The baler was purchased by Garretson in 1946.
(Thursday is Luddite day at

Obama's Plan for Reducing Energy Dependence: Increase Biofuels Production

This is the portion of Obama's speech earlier today on America's plan to reduce energy dependence which related to biofuels:
Another substitute for oil that holds tremendous promise is renewable biofuels – not just ethanol, but biofuels made from things like switchgrass, wood chips, and biomass.

If anyone doubts the potential of these fuels, consider Brazil. Already, more than half – half – of

Ongoing Excess Capacity with Rising Commodity Prices

Earlier this month, Reuven Glick released his outlook for the U.S. economy from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Below, I've excerpted the parts pertaining to oil prices and commodity prices. Falling labor costs and increasing productivity in the U.S. are making up for inflating commodities while increased demand is coming primarily from the developing nations (in this past decade).
K.

What is Egyptian Cotton and Why is it Made in China?

Shortly after the crisis in Egypt began, I changed the sheets on the bed and noticed this tag which prompted this post.

What is Egyptian Cotton?
Egyptian cotton is "extra long staple" mostly made from a cotton plant called Gossypium barbadense or from Gossypium hirsutum, both native to America. It was believed to be derived from sea island cotton or by hybridization with Peruvian cotton. Its

Imaginary New Green Energy Technologies

Dilbert ~ March 29, 2011

More Predictions About Climate Change and Agricultural Production

Cache Valley in Utah (photo: flickr)
According to a study published in the journal, Environmental Research Letters, University of Illinois researchers Ximing Cai and graduate student Xiao Zhang are predicting that climate change's effects upon agricultural land will vary from region to region.High latitudes may expect an increase of total arable land, for example, Russia may gain 36-67%, China

How the Ethanol Program Contributes to Higher Food Costs for Consumers World Wide

Higher food and energy costs are starting to bite the American consumer.The U.S. is the largest corn exporter in the world and we are now using twice as much corn to produce ethanol as we are exporting.35 million acres of the most productive farmland in the U.S. is being diverted to ethanol.
Nearly forty percent of our corn production goes towards producing ethanol.Fifteen percent of global corn

What is Wrong with Current Ag Policy?

The latest writing from the University of Tennessee's Daryll Ray and Harwood Schaffer is a brutally honest assessment of the current ag policy. Washington, are you listening?

For as long as the authors of this column can remember, our understanding of commodity policy was that it is to provide a safety net for farmers. And we thought that we had a pretty good handle on what a farm safety net

Photo: Eggmobile at Polyface Farm

Eggmobile and Chicken Flock at Polyface Farm in Virginia
photo: wikipedia

Japanese Disaster and Oil Demand

credit: hightower reportThe Japanese disaster also has the potential to profoundly impact the world energy situation. ... According to the World Nuclear Association, nuclear power provides about 14% of the world’s electricity, almost 24% of electricity in OECD countries, and 34% in the EU. Current estimates of the lost production in Japan are 55 TWh per year or just over 2.0% of the world’s

A Beautiful Voice Which Speaks for the Grass, with Kansas Roots

The Kansas Flint Hills* (source: flickr)

It's not often that one stumbles across a writing so beautiful as what follows here. The subject matter is that of sorrowful reflection upon the losses experienced by our once majestic Great Plains, and how it feels to have been born of its soils. This writing was a response inspired by Julene Bair's annual attendance of the Land Institute's Prairie

World Cereal Production Graphics

This post goes with the TED talk posted below. These are two graphics that I made from the site "gapminder".


gapminder chart (f/u TED talk below)
This graph shows the net production of cereals per person (on the y-axis). The size of the bubbles represents the total cereal production in the country. Australia has highest production per capita, but as a total, China produces most, followed by the

Myth Busting "Third World" Assumptions with Statistics

If we are to have any grasp at all on the future of global food security and global agriculture, we need to bust myths stemming from the 60's about first world versus third world statistics. That's where Sweden's Hans Rosling comes in. This not to be missed TED talk explains how statistics on global populations and trends have changed and why.

Addendum: In 2010, the UN Food and Agriculture

Agriculture News March 25, 2011

It seems that I broke this story on twitter this morning, much to my surprise... Russia will keep the embargo on grain exports till the end of September, Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said.
A massive fire that destroyed almost 60 square miles of land Tuesday in Southwest Kansas barely made the national news, that I am aware of. (flyover country, ya know) "It's going to be a dust bowl if we

U.S. Weekly Grain Market in Review for March 25, 2011

~March 25, 2011~Compared to last week, grain and soybean bids were moderate to sharply higher. The grains recovered from last week’s losses plus added more gains on top as fears eased from Japan’s escalating nuclear threat that resulted from the devastating earthquake. In addition corn had support from strong gains in wheat and positive outside markets.

Soybeans saw spillover support from corn

Are Speculators to Blame for High Food Commodity Prices? No, and this Explains Why.

photo: flickr
In this post, I have the good fortune of having permission to use the writing of two Ag/Economic experts on the subjects of:
why people think that speculators drive food commoditieswhy speculators, in actuality, do not drive food commodity pricesAt the risk of discrediting myself, I have held back on this subject, therefore this post is long overdue. When I (reluctantly) listed "

Photo: Old Maryland Farm

Plowing up and down hills was a time-honored plowing method that lead to high erosion rates on farmland. [year unknown; source: usda]

Global Food Security Now and Later

I was invited to participate in a discussion precipitated by Andrew Revkin for the NYT's Dot Earth today, so I am posting my response to the group, below. The question was to react to Tom Vilsack's Op-Ed article in yesterday's Financial Times, "How to Avoid a Global Food Price Crisis" and to comment on the value of stocks-to-use ratios as a measure of food security.

__________________

Although

More on the Cost of Food and Energy for the U.S. Consumer

To follow up on the post I did yesterday, "How Much Does the Average U.S. Household Spend on Food and Fuel?" the Cleveland Fed has a new report out on the same subject, so I'm adding it today. Of course, defining the "average" American is difficult and makes all of the difference in producing a report showing what percent of food and fuel comes out of a household budget. In yesterday's post, an

Food Stamps (SNAP) and Nutrition Programs to Equal $108 Billion, or 72% of the USDA Budget in 2011

For 2011, the USDA's mandatory food stamp (SNAP) and other nutritional assistance programs will total $100 Billion dollars.


When discretionary food assistance programs are added, the number becomes $108 Billion, or 72% of the USDA's annual budget authority. This number is up 30% since 2009, from $82 Billion.


The 2011 budget provides funds for anticipated changes in participation and food

How Much Does the Average U.S. Household Spend on Food and Fuel?

According the the Fourth Quarter 2010 Hoisington Managements Report, November 2010 consumer fuel expenditures amounted to 9.1% of wage and salary income and consumer food expenditures were 12.6% of wage and salary income for a family with a median income of $50,000. Annual fuel expenditures rose by about $660 for the typical family and Hoisington estimates that food costs increased $626.

The

What Percent of the Consumer Dollar Does the Livestock Producer Recieve?

Cattle producers received 62 percent of the retail value of a steer in 1980, but only 42.5 percent in 2009.Hog producers received 50% of the retail value of a hog in 1980, but only 24.5 percent in 2009. As Speer points out, packer share of the retailer dollar has been relatively steady over time and allocation has shifted between the retailer and the producer not the packer and the producer.

Global Stocks-to-use Ratios of Rice, Wheat, Coarse Grains and Cereal

The FAO has started a new monthly report of the global cereal situation and outlook.

From the FAO: World cereal stocks for crop seasons ending in 2011 are forecast to fall sharply because of a decline in inventories of wheat and coarse grains. A plunge in stocks of coarse grains at the global level as well as for major exporters is expected to push down stock usage ratios of coarse grains to

A Map of Agritourism Distribution

The share of farms engaged in agritourism is high in the West, where agricultural lands tend to have lower yields due to low rainfall and mountainous terrain. (source: usda)

What Methods Have Farms Used to Decrease High Energy Input Costs?

Between 2002 and 2008, fuel and fertilizer prices rose sharply, thereby contributing to substantially higher expenses for farm energy-intensive inputs.Across all farms, fertilizer and fuel costs averaged 12 percent of production expenses. For corn, soybean, wheat, and cotton farms, however, fertilizer and fuel costs averaged more than 20 percent of total expenses.Practices adopted to reduce

Ethopia's Gambella Region Farmland "Deal of the Century"

It's the deal of the century: £150 a week to lease more than 2,500 sq km (1,000 sq miles) of virgin, fertile land – an area the size of Dorset – for 50 years. ... Gambella has offered investors 1.1 million hectares, nearly a quarter of its best farmland, and 896 companies have come to the region in the last three years. They range from Saudi billionaire Al Amoudi, who is constructing a 20-mile

A Story of Choosing to Live Simply and Grow One's own Food in Rural Japan

photo source: flickr TANAKA juuyoh
From "A Different Kind of Luxury: Japanese Lessons in Simple Living and Inner Abundance" by Andy Couturier:
I am reading Walden Pond now and though it's interesting, I was hoping that there'd be more about growing and cooking food. A life in and with nature should be fifty percent about food. ...

People keep finding themselves in an unforgiving matrix of

Inspiration for Backyard Gardening from the UK

"Growing Communities"
produced by Sarah Proudfoot Clinch.

Disease and Cancer Prevention Through Food and Diet

"Imagine that one medical advancement held the promise to conquer cancer, perhaps within your lifetime … the potential to also end more than 70 of life's most threatening conditions, affecting one billion people worldwide. This is the promise of angiogenesis, the first medical revolution of the 21st century."---William Li M.D.

In this 20-minute video, Dr. William Li explains his study of the

U.S. Weekly Grain Market in Review for March 18, 2011

~March 18, 2011~Compared to last week, grain and soybean bids were mostly moderate to sharply lower. The markets early in the week saw pressure from Japan’s escalating nuclear threat resulting from the devastating earthquake. Japan’s short term demand for U.S. grains remains uncertain. U.S. Stock markets were all lower on uncertainty of global markets and bleak economic reports. Later in the week

Calculated Risk on Inflation and Housing

From Calculated Risk:

These measures all show that year-over-year inflation is still low, but increasing lately. Also, all three increased in February at a higher annualized rate: core CPI increased at an annualized rate of 2.4%, median CPI 2.4% annualized, and trimmed-mean CPI increased 3.8% annualized. This is the second consecutive month with the annualized rate for these three key measures

Agriculture News March 17, 2011

Bloomberg: Corn May Be More Vulnerable to Warming, Stanford Study Shows - The study, to be published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that the longer corn is exposed to temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit), the more yields decline, according to Banziger.Costa Rica: A mile above this rural mountain town, coffee trees have produced some of the world's best

Photo: U.S. Farm During the Dust Bowl

A migrant family poses for a portrait
during the Dust Bowl

Maps of the Japan Nuclear Reactors, Tsunami, and Farmland Areas

First, is the NASA image of the tsunami infiltrating land on March 12th, 2011 following the 9.0 earthquake. For larger images click on the link. The red spot is the fire at the Chiba refinery. Note that the city of Sendai is marked on the image.


nasa photo link
Flooding from Tsunami near Sendai, JapanNASA’s Terra satellite's first view of northeastern Japan in the wake of a devastating

What Effect will the recent Tsunami, Earthquake, and Nuclear Disaster have upon Japan's Agriculture?

photo source: wikipedia
Because Japan is largely mountainous, only 12-13% of its land is farmed, or less than 19,000 square miles. The average farm size is less than five acres, and the average farmer is over 65 years of age. The nation imports 60% of its calories.

There may be Ag related infrastructure that needs to be replaced which might include energy, transport, rail, roads, storage

Farmland Prices: Have We Reached the Top?

The current writing from Daryll Ray and Harwood Schaffer out of the University of Tennessee's Agricultural Policy Analysis Center expresses their concern about the current high farmland prices. I often find myself strongly agreeing with what these two men have to say and this time is no exception. I have been continuously concerned by the high input costs this season, fearful that commodity

Climate Change and Agriculture: Predicting Food Yield Changes by Degree of Temperature Increase

From a new report issued by the National Research Council predicting effects of climate change according to the number of degrees of temperature rise, I have excerpted the parts of the report which relate to agriculture.

Note that normally I try to avoid making predictions or featuring predictive scenarios on this blog as many issues are too complex to do it with certainty and I include climate

View from the Real World: What are Concerns of Boulder County Open Space Farmers?

Historic Niwot Farm in Boulder County Colorado
Out of 94,000 acres of Boulder County Open Space land, about 24,000 acres are devoted to agriculture. The BCOS program values agriculture as an important resource to the community in preserving its heritage as a food producing region and for providing ongoing food security. This area has faced horrendous development challenges which continue to

Food Production in California's Central Valley

photo source: usda
Common egret in grassy area near rice field in Northern California
This month's issue of Audubon magazine has an article about growing rice in the Central Valley of California and describes how newer flooding methods have led to a resurgence in numbers of waterfowl such as long-billed curlews. There is some good Ag info included in the article, which I've selected below.

Photo: Iowa Farmland. $8,000 per Acre, Anyone?

Prime agricultural land in north-central Iowa

Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge for Sandhill Cranes, Snow Geese and Ducks

"An Oasis for Waterfowl in an Arid Land"



Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge Website
Readers note that this is a beautiful video which includes
some agricultural history of the region.
(h/t to my friend Karen at Rambling Spoon)

A Vermont Dairy Farm

This video features the Corse dairy farm in southern Vermont. Established in 1868, this is a fifth-generation certified organic dairy farm, Organic Valley member, with 50-60 cows. Dairy farms have been reduced from nine to three in this town of Whitingham. In 1947 there were 11,206 dairy farms in Vermont. In 2007, there were 1,087.

U.S. Weekly Grain Market in Review for March 11, 2011

~March 11, 2011~Compared to last week, grain and soybean bids were sharply lower. The markets were volatile most of the week on continuing unrest and turmoil in Libya. The dollar index was higher along with crude oil as the stock market was lower pressuring row crops. News of a good soybean crop in Brazil triggered additional weakness in the soy complex. However, news of some export business and

Distribution of the Food Dollar: The Farmer Gets Sixteen Percent

Patrick Canning has an updated USDA report out concerning the divvying up of food dollar's spent here in the U.S. The report was categorized into three sections, a bit differently than in past reports.The farmer was on the receiving end of 16% of the money spent on food in 2008 in the U.S.When the dollar is subdivided into ten major food industries, food processing accounts for 19%, food service

The 8.9 Japan Earthquake

A severe earthquake and tsunami in Japan rattled U.S. agricultural markets Friday, as traders tried to assess the potential impact on import demand for such commodities as pork and corn. Corn and lean hog futures saw some of the sharpest declines as most farm products sold off on fears the disaster would slow demand from a key buyer. Further selling came from traders looking to just exit

In the News

Today's comment: This week oil prices are in the news, so I have included what I feel are some of the most relevant summaries and viewpoints on that situation, including how it impacts farmers and agriculture. I highly recommend reading this first article from the California Farm Bureau, which describes how California farmers are concerned about the high fuel input costs and also how they may

Photo: Navajo Flocks by Edward Curtis

Edward S. Curtis "Navajo Flocks" c1904 Plate #33Description by Edward S. Curtis: The Navajo might as well be called the "Keepers of Flocks". Their sheep are of the greatest importance to their existence, and in the care and management of their flocks they exhibit a thrift not to be found in the average tribe.

A New Comprehensive Soil Nutrient Study for the U.S. and Canada

The International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI) has completed a summary of results of tests performed on approximately 4.4 million soil samples collected in the fall of 2009 and spring of 2010 to compile maps and reports on the nutrient content of soils in the U.S. and Canada. It compiled soil sampling data to report on phosphorus, potassium, sulfur, magnesium, zinc, chloride, and pH. This

Eco-Farming Can Double Food Production in 10 Years, says new UN report

source: flickr (near Sapa, Vietnam)Small-scale farmers can double food production within 10 years in critical regions by using ecological methods, a new UN report shows. Based on an extensive review of the recent scientific literature, the study calls for a fundamental shift towards agroecology as a way to boost food production and improve the situation of the poorest.“To feed 9 billion people in

Charted Together: Crude Oil, Rice, Corn & Wheat Prices 2000-2008

source: Dr. Jason Clay WWF

World Wheat Imports, Exports, and Stocks

In this report, you will see that the world stocks-to-use ratio of wheat is still at a higher level than its ten-year average. You will also see that the FSU region is the most variable in production, due to its weather volatility.Thank you to Dan Obrien at Kansas State for the following information:source: K-StateGlobal wheat production has been concentrated (84.3%) in the top 10 wheat producing

The Importance of Rotational Grazing In Solving the Problems Which are Confronting Agriculture

Rotational grazing along the Creeper Trail, South Fork of the Holston River Project. Virginia. 2002.
Bring back rotational grazing! It will be necessary in confronting climate change, expensive oil and oil depletion, fertilizer availability, and the preservation of soils. To follow, I have several sources which each approach this important subject in a different way. Grazing is as close as we

Farm Photo: 1997 in Florida

Magaly Rodriguez (right), NRCS Soil Conservation Technician from the Yellow River Soil and water Conservation District, explains the survey marks to landowner prior to the construction of a terraced field. Landowner used a contour plow to build the terrace. 1997.

War Horse Theater Puppetry

tweetmeme_style = 'compact';For more information:Lincoln Center TheaterSpielberg buys film rights to War HorseMichael Morpurgo's Book War HorseNational Theater War Horse

Movie Trailer: Queen of the Sun - What are the Bees Telling Us?

For more information go to their website: Queen of the Sun.

In the News

Today's comment: Although the current high oil prices are painful, those who have thought out how to prepare for higher oil prices as supply tightens have agreed that higher energy taxes would force smarter policy, as Europe has done while politicians in this nation have considered that idea suicidal. For example, if all of the money, time, infrastructure, and effort that has gone into the

U.S. Weekly Grain Market in Review for March 4, 2011

~March 4, 2011~Compared to last week, grain and soybean bids were moderate to sharply higher. All grains posted solid gains with support from outside markets. The stock market was up sharply and the dollar index was lower on Thursday boosting the commodities.Buying interest emerged in the soybean floor as wet conditions in Brazil are delaying harvest. Corn posted gains as the long term corn

Ethanol Profitability vs. Gasoline Prices vs. Corn Prices

Darrel Good and Scott Irwin at the University of Illinois have produced the following chart which shows the "shutdown price of corn for ethanol plants" given differing levels of cost for crude oil and wholesale gasoline. The study suggests that even if the VEETC subsidy is not reinstated the end of this year, ethanol production would be profitable enough to exceed its mandated level for each of

Are We Prepared for a Weather Induced Smaller Corn Crop?

Is today's corn demand driven by current ethanol policy goals realistic? Is it ethical? Are we prepared for a low corn crop production year?It would seem that as global food prices are being driven up causing hardship especially in the food-poorer nations and those experiencing sharp rises in food inflation, that we are using corn in the U.S. at a faster rate than we are producing it. And we are

U.S. Drought Map

March 1, 2011 US Drought Monitor UNL:NOAA Forecast Seasonal Drought Outlook Map:

Nebraska's Agricultural Conditions

Nebraska Farmland Values: Rising farm incomes, a limited number of farms for sale, and strong demand for farmland spurred a dramatic jump in farmland values across the state. Compared to the fourth quarter of last year, Nebraska cropland values shot up more than 17 percent and ranchland values climbed 13 percent. Record sales prices were reported in many counties as farmers and nonfarm investors

Report: World Food Prices February 2011

The FAO Food Price Index rose for the eighth consecutive month, up 2.2 percent from January and the highest (in both real and nominal terms) since January 1990, the inception date of the index. Except for sugar, prices of all other commodity groups monitored registered gains in February with dairy products and cereals climbing the most.The FAO Dairy Price Index was up 4 percent from January, but

Farm Photo: Moldboard Plowing with Horse

A farmer uses a primitive moldboard plowto till his farmland in U.S.(Thursday is Luddite Day at bpa)From wikipedia: Mouldboard ploughA major advance in plough design was the mouldboard plough (American spelling: moldboard plow), which aided the cutting blade. The coulter, knife or skeith cuts vertically into the ground just ahead of the share (or frog) a wedge-shaped surface to the front and

Twelve Heritage Pig Breeds

Pigs are omnivores. They are smart and sociable. Ancestors of today's domestic varieties include the wild boar and numerous feral varieties from regions around the world, all of which are highly adaptable mammals. Their ideal foraging habitat is partly forested range land. Though in some regions they are valued for contributing to ecosystems, in others they are considered highly destructive.

Climate Change Sensationalism Minus Fact Checking From the Washington Post Opinion Page

photo creditA few days ago, a Maryland climate change activist, Mike Tidwell, had an opinion piece in the Washington Post, in which he announced to the world that he is refocusing from reducing his carbon footprint to preparing to defend his loved ones for that future time when the hoards come trying to break into his house to steal the lettuce and tomatoes which he is starting to grow in his

U.S. Ethanol Statistics 2010

According to the EIA:The U.S. produced 863,000 barrels of ethanol per day (b/d) or 36.24 million gallons of daily production13.23 billion gallons were produced for the year (23% more than in 2009)Imports were 9.7 million gallonsEthanol Exports were 397 million gallons (about 400% higher than in 2009)270 million gallons (68%) were classified as denatured ethanol127 million gallons (32%) were

Map of Food Insecure Countries

source: FAO - Total: 29 countries Shortfall in aggregate foodproduction/supplies Widespread lackof access Severe localizedfood insecurityThe twenty-nine food insecure nations are: Zimbabwe, Eritrea, Liberia, Niger, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Benin, Central Aftrican Republic, Chad, Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Guinea, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Sudan,